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The Math Doesn't Lie: What McCracken County Actually Gets and What It Actually Pays

  • Writer: ProtectMcCrackenCounty
    ProtectMcCrackenCounty
  • May 22
  • 9 min read

GLE's $1.76 billion is not a gift to Paducah. It's their cost of doing business. Here's what the numbers actually show.


When Governor Beshear announced GLE's project in March 2026, he called it "the single largest capital investment in Western Kentucky history." Judge Clymer called it "a major win for our community." The headlines wrote themselves: $1.76 billion. 240 jobs. Economic development.


It sounds extraordinary. It is meant to.


But when you do the actual math — when you put the real numbers on a real ledger and ask what McCracken County receives versus what it pays — the picture looks very different. So different, in fact, that calling this deal a "win" for McCracken County requires either a fundamental misunderstanding of how incentive economics work, or a deliberate decision not to do the arithmetic.


We did the arithmetic. Here it is.


First — let's clear up the biggest misconception.


GLE's $1.76 billion is not money flowing into McCracken County. It is not a check written to the community. It is not a donation, a grant, or a gift.


It is GLE's capital expenditure — the cost of building a commercial uranium enrichment facility that will generate profit for Australian and Canadian shareholders for decades to come.


Think of it this way. When a grocery chain opens a new store, it spends $10 million on construction, equipment, and inventory. Nobody calls that "$10 million invested in the community." It's the price of opening a business. The community gets jobs and tax revenue. The company gets a functioning store and years of commercial revenue.


GLE's $1.76 billion works exactly the same way. It is what they have to spend to build a uranium enrichment facility that will then generate commercial revenue — selling enriched uranium fuel on the global nuclear market. McCracken County is not GLE's investment partner. McCracken County is GLE's host community.


And the host is being asked to pay considerably more than it's being offered in return.


What McCracken County actually receives — the benefit side of the ledger


Let's be precise about this, because precision is exactly what the official announcements have avoided.


McCracken County levies a 1% occupational tax on all wages earned within the county — confirmed by McCracken County Code of Ordinances § 35.37. That is the primary mechanism through which the county captures economic benefit from employers operating here.


Here is what the two confirmed projects — GLE and General Matter — will generate in county occupational tax:


  • GLE — 240 permanent jobs at $62/hour average (including benefits, confirmed in their KEDFA agreement): 240 workers × $128,960/year × 1% = $309,504 per year Over 15 years (the KBI agreement term): $4.64 million


  • General Matter — 140 permanent jobs at an estimated $100,000/year average: 140 workers × $100,000 × 1% = $140,000 per year Over 15 years: $2.1 million


  • Construction phase — approximately 2,000 peak workers for 12-18 months: 2,000 workers × $90,000/year × 1% × 1.25 years = $2.25 million, one time


Total confirmed occupational tax revenue: approximately $9 million.


Not over one year. Over fifteen years and a construction phase.


There is also property tax — potentially significant if GLE pays at full assessed value.


But here's the problem: we don't know what GLE will actually pay in property tax, because Judge Clymer signed a nondisclosure agreement covering the county's financial commitment. That NDA almost certainly covers a PILOT agreement, a TIF district, or some other mechanism that reduces or redirects GLE's property tax obligation. Until the NDA is disclosed, the property tax benefit to McCracken County cannot be calculated. That is not an accident.


What McCracken County actually pays — the cost side of the ledger


Now let's look at what the community is giving up.


The KBI payroll tax intercept — $38 million confirmed


The Kentucky Business Investment program sounds like a state program. And it is — but its costs flow downstream to communities like McCracken County. Here's how it works.


GLE's 240 employees earn wages. They pay Kentucky state income taxes on those wages — in full, every year. But under the KBI agreement, GLE gets to keep a portion of those employee-generated state income taxes as a credit against its own tax liability. For 15 years.


Their workers pay the taxes. GLE pockets a share of them.


The same applies to General Matter's 140 employees under their separate KBI agreement.


Combined KBI intercept: up to $38 million over 15 years — confirmed in their KEDFA agreements.


That is $38 million in tax revenue generated by McCracken County workers that flows back to the companies rather than into the public revenue stream that funds our schools and services. It is not money that was never going to exist. It is money that will exist — and GLE and General Matter will keep it.


Source: KEDFA KBI approval — GLE (March 26, 2026): https://newkentuckyhome.ky.gov/Newsroom/NewsPage/20260326_GLE; General Matter DOE lease announcement (August 2025)


The KEIA construction tax refund — $3 million confirmed


GLE can recoup up to $3 million in Kentucky sales and use taxes it paid on construction costs under the Kentucky Enterprise Initiative Act. In other words, the taxes GLE paid to build its facility get refunded. McCracken County's share of that foregone revenue doesn't materialize.


Source: KEDFA KEIA approval — GLE (March 26, 2026)


The HB 775 equipment sales tax exemption — tens of millions over 25 years


Under HB 775, passed by the Kentucky General Assembly in 2025, any data center investing $100 million or more in McCracken County — which qualifies given the county's population — receives a 25-year exemption from Kentucky sales and use taxes on all equipment.


Data center equipment — servers, cooling systems, routers, monitoring systems — is refreshed on 3-5 year cycles. A 25-year exemption means multiple rounds of equipment purchases, each tax-free. The total value of this exemption over 25 years is not calculable until the facility is built and operating — but it is real, it is significant, and it is foregone revenue that would otherwise flow in part to McCracken County.


Source: HB 775 (2025 Kentucky General Assembly)


The undisclosed county NDA commitment — up to $71.9 million


This is the number that cannot be confirmed because of the nondisclosure agreement — but it can be calculated by subtraction.


Total incentive package: $98.9 million. Confirmed state share: $27 million. Remainder: $71.9 million.


That is what McCracken County has committed — in an unknown form, for an unknown duration, under an NDA that prevents the public from knowing the terms. It could be a PILOT agreement reducing GLE's property tax obligation for decades. It could be a TIF district redirecting future tax revenue away from county schools and services. It could be an industrial revenue bond arrangement that leverages McCracken County's credit rating for GLE's benefit.


We don't know. Because of the NDA.


What we know is that it's up to $71.9 million. Of public money. Committed in secret.


Infrastructure, emergency planning, and public health — unquantified


No public estimate exists for the infrastructure upgrades McCracken County will need to support a uranium enrichment facility and the proposed data center and SMR. Road improvements. Water system capacity. Emergency services equipment and training. NRC-mandated emergency planning obligations that fall on local government. These are real costs — borne by the county, not by GLE.


And then there is public health. National research documents that a single major data center can cost $53-99 million per year in health damages to surrounding communities — from diesel generator emissions, noise, and air quality impacts. These costs fall on local families and local hospitals, not on GLE's shareholders in Australia and Canada.


The bottom line — the math nobody in a press conference will do for you


Let's put it on one ledger.


Amount

Status

RECEIVES: Occupational tax — both uranium enrichment facilities, 15 years + construction

~$9 million

Confirmed

PAYS: KBI payroll tax intercept — both companies

$38 million

Confirmed

PAYS: KEIA construction refund — GLE

$3 million

Confirmed

PAYS: HB 775 equipment tax exemption — data center

Tens of millions over 25 years

Confirmed by statute; amount TBD

PAYS: County NDA commitment — GLE

Up to $71.9 million

Confirmed by subtraction; terms secret

PAYS: Infrastructure, emergency planning, public health

Not estimated

Unquantified

On confirmed figures alone — before the NDA commitment, before the 25-year equipment exemption, before infrastructure costs — McCracken County pays out $41 million against $9 million in confirmed revenue.


That is $4.56 paid for every $1 received.


Add the undisclosed NDA commitment and the ratio rises to over $12 paid for every $1 received.


And none of this accounts for the cost of hosting an active nuclear facility on a Superfund site beside the Ohio River — the water monitoring, the emergency response capacity, the long-term environmental liability — none of which has been estimated, none of which GLE will pay.


"But what about the property tax?"


This is the question officials will raise when confronted with these numbers. Fair enough. GLE's $1.76 billion facility, assessed at full value under Kentucky's effective property tax rate, would generate roughly $15 million per year in property tax — which would be genuinely significant for McCracken County.


But here is the problem: that full-value figure is almost certainly not what McCracken County will receive. The NDA almost certainly covers a PILOT agreement or TIF district that dramatically reduces or redirects that property tax revenue. That is why the NDA exists. If the property tax terms were favorable to the community, there would be no reason to hide them.


Until the NDA is disclosed, the property tax benefit cannot be calculated. And until it can be calculated, any claim that this is a good deal for McCracken County is a claim based on incomplete information — by design.


"But GLE is investing $1.76 billion here."


Yes. In their business. To generate profit for their shareholders.


When Amazon builds a fulfillment center, it spends hundreds of millions on construction and equipment. When a coal company opens a mine, it spends tens of millions on equipment and infrastructure. When ExxonMobil builds a refinery, it spends billions. None of those expenditures are gifts to the communities that host them. They are business investments — necessary costs of generating commercial revenue.


GLE's $1.76 billion is what it costs to build a laser uranium enrichment facility. Once built, that facility will process over 200,000 metric tons of depleted uranium — stored at the adjacent Superfund site at public expense for decades — and sell the enriched product on the global nuclear fuel market. The raw material is there. The federal contract is signed. The profit will flow to Sydney and Toronto.


McCracken County gets to host the facility. McCracken County absorbs the risk. McCracken County pays the subsidies.


That is not a win. That is an extraction.


What a genuine good deal would look like


We want to be clear: we are not opposed to economic development in McCracken County. We are opposed to bad economic development — development that transfers public money and public risk to private foreign corporations without adequate public benefit or public process.


A genuine good deal would include:


  • Full public disclosure of all incentive terms before final approval — no NDAs

  • A net tax benefit to McCracken County that demonstrably exceeds the cost of incentives provided

  • Binding job creation guarantees with real penalties for non-performance

  • A decommissioning bond posted before construction begins — so McCracken County is not left holding the cleanup bill if GLE closes, relocates, or goes bankrupt

  • An independent cumulative environmental impact assessment — paid for by the applicants, not the taxpayers — before any permits are issued


None of those things currently exist for this project. The NDA makes the first one impossible. The others have not been required.


What you can do


The Planning Commission meeting on May 27th was the first public hearing at which these numbers were placed in the record. It will not be the last opportunity to demand accountability.


File an Open Records Request for the full GLE incentive agreement — including the county's financial commitment, its form, and its terms. Contact your state legislators and ask them to request the same records on your behalf — legislators have Open Records access that cannot be denied under the economic development exemption. Attend every Planning Commission meeting where GLE-related approvals are on the agenda.


The math is not complicated. It just requires someone willing to do it — and to say the answer out loud.


We are willing. And the answer is: this deal, as currently structured and concealed, does not add up in McCracken County's favor.


Sources — verify everything:



All calculations use confirmed public figures. Where figures are estimated — General Matter wages, construction workforce size — the methodology and assumptions are stated explicitly. We invite correction of any error, and will update this post if better data becomes available.


 
 
 

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